Monday, 31st of December

Today being the last day of the year, it is significant to notice the direction the market is following because this to a large extent will determine the trends followed in the new year. The markets have traded in low volumes in all the currencies due to the festive and the holidays and funnily today, the market came back with higher volumes of trade.

Lets see what a colleague has said.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

You can watch it Here

Let's first review the Christmas week.

The first opportunity we had on Wednesday was a housing index indicator at 9.00 a.m. It hit my signal. It was expected to come out at -5.7 million, and it came out at -6.1 million so it was a sell signal on USD/JPY. Unfortunately, USD/JPY was quite choppy but in Diamonds room we decided to trade EUR/USD that worked OK. We made a few pips on initial move and left one quarter for 100 pips profit. USD/JPY gave an opportunity to make 10 pips so I hope you get out at least at break even or took a small loss.

Then on Thursday we had U.S. Durable Goods and Initial Claims. It did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade. Similarly, Tokyo CPI came out as expected so it was a no trade either.

On Friday we had UK Nationwide House Prices m/m at 2.00 a.m. and it did not hit our trigger but at 10.00 a.m. we had U.S. New Home Sales which did hit our trigger. It was expected it would came out at 720K, and we were looking to trade 50K deviation. It hit our sell signal on USD/JPY, and we traded 30 pips to the downside, then we had a retracement, and then it continued to go down for the rest of the day. During the first minute there was a pretty big hesitation so it was easy to get in this trade in most brokers. I hope you made some pips.

Let's now talk about Monday, last day of 2007 year.

1. Monday, December 31st, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
On Monday we will have only one report that I feel is worthy watching and possibly trading although I am very skeptical about this. It is U.S. Existing Home Sales at 10 a.m. New York time. Usually we use a trigger of 0.2. I am a little bit worried because this is a New Year Eve, and a lot of speculations about how market is going to end this year so this may dominate the price action. However, it still can be tradable but I will be trading only a half of what I would normally trade. I prefer to trade on USD/JPY so if it comes out at 5.2 million or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 4.8 million or lower, it would be a sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As I said, because this is the last day of 2007 year, it can be a risky report to trade so if you want to skip it, I will not blame you. One more thing: if you see a definite trend right before the news release, don't trade against it - take another pair to trade. In case you want to trade pairs such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD, don't forget to switch triggers so "buy" will be "sell" and "sell" will be "buy" as my trigger is provided for USD/JPY.

That would be all for this year.


All the best for new, 2008 year!

To Our Success! - Courtesy Felix Homogratus